Saturday, October 19, 2013

Higher interest rates, economic uncertainty cool California home sales and prices in September

LOS ANGELES (Oct. 17,2013) – California home sales declined for the second straight month in September, following rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, which put the demand for housing on hold for buyers.  Meanwhile, housing supply conditions continued to loosen up as the housing market entered its off season, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported.

“It’s encouraging that housing inventory has been steadily improving since May, when housing supply hit its recent bottom,” said C.A.R. President Don Faught.  “While inventory remains constrained in the lower-priced home segment and primary home buyers continue to compete with investors, the number of properties for sale overall has been rising since March 2013 and is at its highest level since mid-2012.”

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 412,880 units in September, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide.  Sales in September were down 5.1 percent from a revised 434,910 in August and down 2.6 percent from a revised 424,000 in September 2012.  The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2013 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year.  It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The median home price declined in September for the first time since February but was still higher on a year-to-year basis.  The statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home was down 2.8 percent from August’s median price of $441,330 to $428,810 in September.  September’s price was 24.4 percent higher than the revised $344,760 recorded in September 2012, marking the 15th straight month of double-digit annual gains.  The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling as well as a general change in values.

“The debate leading up to the expected tapering of the Fed’s stimulus program caused interest rates to rise over the past several months and might have put some of the housing demand on hold,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.  “While interest rates have decreased since the Fed’s decision last month to postpone the pullback, the government shutdown and debt ceiling discussions over the past two weeks are likely to have an adverse effect on October home sales.”

Other key facts of C.A.R.’s September 2013 resale housing report include:

• The available supply of existing, single-family detached homes for sale rose in September to 3.6 months, up from August’s Unsold Inventory Index of 3.1 months. The index was 3.7 months in September 2012.  The index indicates the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.  A six- to seven-month supply is considered typical in a normal market.

• The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home also increased to 29.6 days in September from 28.8 days in August, but was down from a revised 39.2 days in September 2012.

• Mortgage rates have been on the rise for the past five months, with the 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaging 4.49 percent, up from 4.46 percent in August 2013 and up from 3.47 percent in September 2012, according to Freddie Mac.  Adjustable-mortgage interest rates in September averaged 2.67 percent, up from 2.65 in August and up from 2.60 percent in September 2012.

Charts:

• Unsold Inventory by price range.
• Change in sales by price range.
• Share of sales by price range.

Note:  The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state, and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only.  County sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales.  Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home.  The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower-end or the upper-end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold.  Due to the low sales volume in some areas, median price changes may exhibit unusual fluctuation. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 100 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 155,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

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September 2013 County Sales and Price Activity
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

September-13 Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes Sales
State/Region/County Sep-13 Aug-13 Sep-12 MTM% Chg YTY% Chg MTM% Chg YTY% Chg
CA SFH (SAAR) $428,810 $441,330 $344,760 r -2.8% 24.4% -5.1% -2.6%
CA Condo/Townhomes $344,210 $343,400 $264,800 r 0.2% 30.0% -14.7% 13.4%
Los Angeles Metro Area $390,800 $394,550 $318,470 -1.0% 22.7% -13.5% -0.8%
Inland Empire $252,100 $245,330 $198,270 2.8% 27.1% -15.4% -1.7%
S.F. Bay Area $687,260 $704,830 $554,450 -2.5% 24.0% -15.9% 3.6%
S.F. Bay Area
Alameda $640,340 $654,060 $491,670 -2.1% 30.2% -20.8% 11.8%
Contra-Costa (Cty.) $770,450 $808,560 $655,340 -4.7% 17.6% -15.2% 4.8%
Marin $893,140 $987,740 $769,230 -9.6% 16.1% -14.7% 10.7%
Napa $477,270 $565,970 $381,670 -15.7% 25.0% -8.5% -1.8%
San Francisco $858,330 $871,480 $678,080 -1.5% 26.6% -15.6% 12.9%
San Mateo $908,000 $980,000 $779,000 -7.3% 16.6% -18.5% 4.9%
Santa Clara $778,000 $805,000 $650,000 -3.4% 19.7% -10.9% 3.9%
Solano $286,220 $295,890 $196,980 -3.3% 45.3% -16.8% -12.5%
Sonoma $455,850 $453,790 $368,590 0.5% 23.7% -19.9% -2.3%
Southern California
Los Angeles $459,020 $444,950 $373,020 3.2% 23.1% -10.2% 1.3%
Orange County $672,680 $664,580 $561,830 1.2% 19.7% -15.9% -1.6%
Riverside County $293,560 $290,030 $228,900 1.2% 28.2% -12.8% -5.6%
San Bernardino $185,860 $183,240 $150,090 1.4% 23.8% -19.2% 5.4%
San Diego $490,130 $482,470 $404,880 1.6% 21.1% -20.5% -6.2%
Ventura $550,000 $555,560 $432,790 -1.0% 27.1% -15.9% -6.1%
Central Coast
Monterey $422,500 $407,000 $330,000 3.8% 28.0% -1.8% -1.8%
San Luis Obispo $495,350 $477,420 $424,390 3.8% 16.7% -19.9% -4.2%
Santa Barbara $692,930 $625,000 $415,380 r 10.9% 66.8% -8.1% 18.2%
Santa Cruz $639,500 $629,000 $560,000 1.7% 14.2% -17.1% -13.6%
Central Valley
Fresno $185,830 $184,000 $159,130 1.0% 16.8% -13.0% 0.3%
Glenn $134,000 $135,000 $163,330 -0.7% -18.0% 16.7% 31.3%
Kern (Bakersfield) $195,000 $199,400 r $150,000 -2.2% 30.0% -6.1% 3.2%
Kings County $168,460 $184,000 $156,670 -8.4% 7.5% -3.5% 25.8%
Madera $190,000 $170,000 $120,000 11.8% 58.3% -40.5% -26.7%
Merced $178,570 $155,880 $138,570 14.6% 28.9% -11.2% -3.1%
Placer County $365,290 $361,830 $308,590 1.0% 18.4% -8.2% 1.6%
Sacramento $255,390 $257,660 $180,830 -0.9% 41.2% -12.6% -4.5%
San Benito $428,950 $387,000 $311,000 10.8% 37.9% -24.0% -22.4%
San Joaquin $242,370 $231,390 $179,780 4.7% 34.8% -4.6% 1.0%
Stanislaus $194,890 $203,120 $151,500 -4.1% 28.6% -15.7% -2.4%
Tulare $163,500 $158,460 $137,060 r 3.2% 19.3% -4.7% -12.3%
Other Counties in California
Amador $252,780 $211,110 r $196,670 19.7% 28.5% -13.5% -10.0%
Butte County $250,000 $281,820 $207,140 -11.3% 20.7% -24.2% -6.0%
Calaveras $215,500 $220,000 NA -2.0% NA -16.5% NA
Del Norte $136,500 $100,000 NA 36.5% NA 33.3% NA
El Dorado County $334,900 $355,840 $279,170 -5.9% 20.0% -20.3% -12.4%
Humboldt $251,090 $247,220 $223,610 1.6% 12.3% 5.3% 33.7%
Lake County $150,000 $153,330 $146,670 -2.2% 2.3% -20.5% 0.0%
Tuolumne $207,690 $215,280 $155,710 -3.5% 33.4% -6.8% 4.6%
Mendocino $285,710 $276,670 $211,360 3.3% 35.2% -50.0% -27.7%
Shasta $190,500 $203,650 $166,670 -6.5% 14.3% -30.0% -8.8%
Siskiyou County $155,000 $140,000 $140,000 10.7% 10.7% -4.3% 46.7%
Sutter $204,700 $202,000 NA 1.3% NA -1.3% NA
Tehama $150,000 $146,670 $127,500 2.3% 17.6% -20.6% -22.9%
Yolo $331,030 $320,310 $238,890 3.3% 38.6% -27.7% -17.6%
Yuba $170,000 $186,000 NA -8.6% NA -11.5% NA
r = revised
NA = not available

September 2013 County Unsold Inventory and Time on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

September-13 Unsold Inventory Index Median Time on Market
State/Region/County Sep-13 Aug-13 Sep-12 Sep-13 ##### Sep-12
CA SFH (SAAR) 3.6 3.1 3.7 29.6 28.8 39.2 r
CA Condo/Townhomes 3.1 2.6 3.6 29.7 28.3 46.7
Los Angeles Metro Area 3.6 3.1 3.8 37.4 36.7 47.2
Inland Empire 3.7 3.1 3.8 31.8 34.3 45.3
S.F. Bay Area 2.8 2.4 3.2 37.4 35.9 40.4
S.F. Bay Area
Alameda 2.6 2.1 2.6 49.2 48.7 59.2
Contra-Costa (Central Cty.) 2.5 2.3 2.4 49.2 49.3 63.6
Marin 3.8 3.0 4.7 43.2 40.6 51.6
Napa 5.0 2.0 5.7 53.1 57.3 67.6
San Francisco 3.4 2.8 4.3 23.7 25.4 29.4
San Mateo 2.6 2.1 3.0 20.1 19.7 21.0
Santa Clara 2.1 2.1 2.3 20.1 19.0 20.8
Solano 3.1 2.7 3.7 35.4 32.1 55.5
Sonoma 3.6 2.9 4.3 48.2 46.8 61.5
Southern California
Los Angeles 3.4 2.9 3.7 33.0 31.1 42.8
Orange County 3.8 3.3 4.1 51.0 46.3 56.1
Riverside County 3.8 3.2 3.6 32.2 36.6 46.3
San Bernardino 3.6 3.0 4.1 31.2 29.8 43.7
San Diego 4.2 3.4 4.3 25.5 24.4 40.0
Ventura 3.7 3.2 4.3 45.6 46.9 55.4
Central Coast
Monterey 4.0 4.0 4.2 26.6 23.5 28.2
San Luis Obispo 5.4 4.4 5.1 29.0 26.7 51.8
Santa Barbara 3.6 3.5 5.1 37.2 38.3 55.0
Santa Cruz 3.8 3.2 3.1 22.8 24.8 34.6
Central Valley
Fresno 4.4 3.7 4.7 25.0 23.1 26.8
Glenn 4.5 4.7 3.8 45.5 40.7 31.0
Kern (Bakersfield) 2.7 2.6 3.9 r 15.0 16.0 23.0
Kings County 3.0 2.9 4.1 37.2 50.3 37.2
Madera 5.0 2.4 3.5 27.6 25.4 43.9
Merced 3.2 2.9 3.4 21.9 24.2 27.8
Placer County 3.2 3.1 2.8 22.1 20.8 26.5
Sacramento 3.0 2.7 2.4 20.4 19.7 24.1
San Benito 3.4 2.8 3.0 19.4 22.3 23.9
San Joaquin 2.8 2.8 2.9 19.5 19.5 23.1
Stanislaus 2.7 2.4 2.6 20.1 19.6 24.4
Tulare 4.2 4.1 4.0 24.1 23.3 25.2 r
Other Counties in California
Amador 4.4 3.9 r 5.6 43.1 53.8 r 82.8
Butte County 5.5 4.2 4.6 37.2 25.6 41.2
Calaveras 6.0 5.2 NA 64.0 53.0 NA
Del Norte 8.8 13.1 NA 96.0 107.0 NA
El Dorado County 4.9 4.1 3.8 r 34.2 36.2 48.1
Humboldt 5.1 5.3 6.3 32.9 27.9 64.6
Lake County 5.7 4.9 6.7 74.2 91.0 64.2
Tuolumne 6.5 6.3 6.7 51.1 57.8 58.9
Mendocino 10.8 5.6 7.6 85.9 87.1 93.4
Shasta 5.7 4.1 4.7 38.4 28.0 37.8
Siskiyou County 8.9 9.1 13.2 57.6 71.2 61.0
Sutter 2.7 2.4 NA 14.0 11.0 NA
Tehama 7.6 6.3 6.9 36.4 41.4 52.8
Yolo 3.6 2.7 2.7 21.0 18.8 32.3
Yuba 2.9 2.6 NA 16.0 10.5 NA
r = revised
NA = not available

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Thumbs Up
Many now realize that it is a great time to buy a home.  It might also be an opportune time to sell your house.  Here are the five reasons we believe now may be a perfect time to put your house on the market.

1. Demand Is High

The most recent Existing Home Sales Reports by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) show a double digit percent increase in sales year-over year; sales have remained above last year’s levels for over 25 months.  There are buyers out there right now and they are serious about purchasing.

2. Supply Is Beginning to Increase

Total housing inventory is again approaching historic norms of a 5 month supply compared with 4.3 months in January.  Many expect inventory to continue to rise as 3.2 million homeowners escaped the shackles of negative equity in the last 12 months and an additional 1.9 million are expected to enter positive equity in the next 12 months.  Selling now while demand is high and before supply increases may garner you your best price.

3. New Construction Is Coming Back

Over the last several years, most homeowners selling their home did not have to compete with a new construction project around the block.  As the market is recovering, more and more builders are jumping back in.  These ‘shiny’ new homes will again become competition as they are an attractive alternative for many purchasers.

4. Interest Rates Will Again Rise

Although Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows that interest rates for a 30-year mortgage have softened recently, most experts predict that they will begin to rise later this year.  The Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors are in unison projecting that rates will be up almost a full percentage point by this time next year.

Whether you are moving up or moving down, your housing expense will be more a year from now if a mortgage is necessary to purchase your next home.

5. It’s Time to Move On with Your Life

Look at the reason you are thinking about selling and decide whether it is worth waiting.  Is the possibility of a few extra dollars more important than being with family; more important than your health; more important than having the freedom to go on with your life the way you think you should?

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Home Loans: Shopping for a Low Interest Rate


Buying a home is likely the biggest purchase you will make, and even more likely a purchase that will require a loan. When dealing with a financial commitment such as this, understanding how to get the lowest possible interest rate could mean a difference of thousands of dollars. Home loans are a complicated business, so here are a few tips to help you shop for the lowest interest rate.

Qualifying for the Lowest Rates

Computer models fix a large percentage of the costs of a home loan with strict prequalification.  Loan officers are not able to give every client that walks in the door the same deal.  It is a good idea to be aware of your own credit score and equity, while also comparing rates in your local market, so you know what to expect.

For the best interest rates you'll likely need a credit score of at least 740 and have 20 percent equity. These figures are a general guide and are always changing.  However, if your score is considerably lower than this and you have low equity, be prepared for heavily increased rates compared to the best that are offered.

Be Prepared

The best thing you can do for yourself to make the loan process easier is to plan ahead and be prepared.  Be sure to gather all the necessary documents before you begin; to ensure timeliness and organization.  You should also prepare for the down payment by saving up monthly.  Depending on the lender and type of loan, you may be required to put anywhere from 2.25% to 20% of the purchase price down.  In addition, keep in mind the estimated closing costs, as many tend to forget to budget for these fees.  It’s never too late to start saving.

Another factor to consider is home insurance costs.  If insurance costs for your area are particularly low, it may free up some additional cash for loan repayments.  Tools like the home insurance calculator allow you to plug in all of your information to get an estimated cost for your home insurance.

Understand your Needs

Before going to speak to anyone about getting a home loan, be sure you are clear about what it is that you're looking for and what parameters you have set.  If for any reason they can't be met, be cautious of alternative offers that are suggested to you, as you may be persuaded down a different path.

Looking Will Lead to the Right Rate

There’s no easy way around it if you want to find the lowest interest rates on a home loan.  You have to spend a long time looking, and you need a strategy.  It may not be something you're particularly interested in but if it saves you a large sum of money, it’s worth it.

You must compare similar policies; otherwise you're wasting your time, as a sensible comparison is almost impossible.  Consider the closing costs, interest rate, and lock period to ensure that they are comparable offers.

Move Quickly

As they say, time is money. Be sure to respond promptly to your lender if they require any additional information from you so you can keep the process moving.

If you've managed to find a great deal on your home loan, waiting around for ages while you try to better it or find the equity required to close the deal, is likely to end up costing you. Shopping around is certainly in your best interest. However with today’s market on the rise, rates are not likely to stay stagnant. So if you find a great rate that fits your needs don’t wait long to close it.

Also look into getting prequalified for a loan. This process is rather simple and can put you in a much better place to buy, as well as give you a great idea as to what you can expect to borrow.

Taking out a home loan is one of the biggest financial commitments you are likely ever going to make.  Make sure you put in the time to do your research and look around for the best possible deal.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

The real estate market is a place where most people will make their largest investment ever. It is a place where fortunes can be, and often are, made.  It is not a place, however, for you to “wing it”.

While the myriad TV shows about real estate make the process look so simple – it’s not really that simple… they make it seem like all you need to do is slap a for sale by owner sign in the yard, have one open house with fresh flowers and fresh baked cookies and bam! SOLD! in one day.  Well I can tell you that in New Hanover County, North Carolina it takes an average of 121 days to sell a home. An average means that some houses take much longer to sell and some much less than 121 days to sell.

You need a professional, full time, well educated, ethical and trustworthy REALTOR to represent you whether buying or selling real estate.

1 -  Paperwork

Currently in North Carolina there are over 24 pages of contracts involved with buying or selling most homes. The state law requires much of this paperwork regardless or whether or not you hire a REALTOR.  REALTORS are trained and educated on the contracts, which are constantly changing, so they can advise you during the process.  They can also refer you to a real estate attorney to represent you on all legal matters involved in the process.

2 - Process

There are about 180 typical actions, research steps, procedures, processes and review stages in a successful residential real estate transaction that are normally provided by  full service real estate brokerages in return for their sales commission. (Based on a report prepared by the Orlando Regional REALTORS Association).  So this means that if you choose to go it on your own, you are going to have to do all 180 things yourself… or they don’t get done… which probably means your transaction doesn’t end in a successful purchase/sale.

3 - Negotiation

While there will always be that one guy (or gal) who thinks he (she) is the all-time greatest negotiator, the vast majority of folks do not like confrontational interactions.  A negotiation for the purchase/sale of an asset as large as a piece of real estate can be a very confrontational interaction. The role of the REALTOR is to act as a buffer between the two parties who are in the midst of a very emotional and high-level financial transaction, both wanting to get the best they can get often at the detriment of the other party. A real estate professional is experienced in all aspects of the negotiation and is bound legally to do only what is in the best interest of his/her client.

4 -  Values

Perhaps the single most important aspect of the transaction is the value of the piece of property.

If you are a seller you want to know how much you can expect to get for the sales price and how much of that you will walk away with in your pocket. You want to advertise the property for sale at the right price so you sell for as much as possible but you don’t want to price it so high that no buyers make you an offer (and YES if you price it too high MOST buyers will not want to offend you by making a low offer…thus you don’t get any offers).

If you are the buyer, you want to know how much to offer. Now multiple offer situations are happening more frequently and if a buyer offers too low, they can either be rejected completely by the seller or they can cause the negotiation to take too long thus allowing time for a competing bid to come in… allowing the seller to be in the driver’s seat.

5 -  Teacher

Any good professional, whether a real estate professional, doctor, lawyer, CPA, etc., will have the heart of a teacher. Real estate brokerage is a service business. The professional REALTOR is there to educate you about the conditions impacting today’s real estate market.  It is as easy as picking up the newspaper or searching the Internet for real estate news to see conflicting headline after conflicting headline. “Prices are up 20%”, “Among worst markets in nation”, “Best year since the crash”…well which is it? All real estate is local and your real estate professional will know the local market conditions and will lead you through the process, like any good teacher would, making sure you understand all that is going on around you.

A real estate professional is a crucial member of your team when buying or selling real estate. You could be buying your first home or your tenth home, an investment property or a vacation home, commercial or residential…whichever it is you are best served in the care of a full time, well educated, ethical, trustworthy real estate professional.5 Reasons